OIL/GAS WAR
Oil money is used to fund the spread of Islam and to acquire territory for Allah - by means of jihad. Don't support terrorism, use alternative fuels
OIL/GAS WAR |
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- | Oil money is used to fund the spread of Islam and to acquire territory for Allah - by means of jihad. Don't support terrorism, use alternative fuels |
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(See also: Al-Qaeda's Strategy of Depriving the West of Essential Oil Iraq Syrian Gas Al-Qaeda; Terrorists Target Oil Production )
To force Israel to withdraw from Palestinian cities
We are almost 30 years on
the other side of the Arab Oil Embargo of 1973. That Oil Embargo was only
one incident in a long string of oil wars; the Suez Crisis of the 1950s;
the Six Day War in 1967; the aforementioned Arab Oil Embargo of 1973; the
Iranian Revolution; the Iran/Iraq War; and the Gulf War all had oil in the
equation. Once again, world comsumer nations are being threatened with being
held hostage by lack of oil.
As of last week, Iraq has stopped production for 30 days to force Israel
to withdraw from Palestinian cities. Saddam said in his speech that "The
oppressive Zionist and American emeny has belittled the capabilities of the
(Arab) nation." Confirmation has come through a spokeswoman at the United
Nations that the pipeline in Turkey at Chyhan has stopped receiving oil.
Saddam was making telephone calls to enlist other Arab nations in his pressure
tactics against Israel's incursion into Palestinian territory. Saddam's little
black phone book included Iran and Libya, who have expressed support. Iranian
supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Friday called on Islamic countries
to stop supplying oil for one month to countries with close relations with
Israel. Libya announced Monday that it supported the call. The kingpin in
the equation is Saudi Arabia, followed by Kuwait.
Should they join the embargo, economists worry that the global economy,
struggling to recover from the World Trade Center terror attack, might suffer
a numbing blow. It has been reported that just a one percent increase at
the pump can affect spending by $1 billion in the U.S.
Many Americans look back nostalgically to when we pumped our own oil. Texas,
Oklahoma, Alaska, and other states' oil fields were oil rich and supplying
us adequately. In fact, in 1950 the United States provided 52% of the world's
oil needs compared to 10% today. Americans question why we need to purchase
outside oil when we have our own oil fields. A personal conversation with
an oil engineer, fleeing Iraq for his life to live in the United States not
long ago, answered that. Iraq's oil fields are artesian. The oil gushes out
of the ground of its own accord, no pumping needed. That is why Saddam's
arson of the Kuwaiti oil fields was so hard to extinguish - the oil was
pressurized and blasting its way to the surface. Oil pumping raises the price
of a barrel of oil substantially.
There is bad news, but there is also good news. The saving grace of this
situation is that the 1973 Oil Embargo harmed several of the Arab nations
who became involved in it. Some of those nation's GNP is as much as two-thirds
in oil revenues. Those nations can not afford to stop the flow of oil. Should
the boycott not reach its mark, the search for oil may just begin to move
out of the Middle East to other fields and bring promise to some oil producers
that might not have otherwise risen above the cartel. An addition to that
is the Strategic Oil Reserve that was started after the 1973 debacle. Four
billion barrels of oil stand ready to be tapped should the Arab nations throw
themselves fully into the embargo. That is equal to more than five years
of Iraqi oil production.
The final bit of cushion is that in 2000, Saudi Arabia hosted a pledge by
OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) that oil would not be
used as a political weapon.
ISRAEL NEWS UPDATE. April 12, 2002 by Ron Cantrell,
http://www.bridgesforpeace.com
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(Return to Oil Main Page) |
Iraq Using Oil Pipeline To Sway U.S. Ally (May 2002)
With Turkey being a critical ally for the United States should it decide to attack Iraq, Baghdad is hoping that new income from and old pipeline will help dissuade Ankara from helping Washington.
http://www.stratfor.com/standard/analysis_view.php?ID=204590 IRAQ CALLED WILD CARD IN OIL MARKET
The United States remains concerned over the instability of Iraqi oil supplies.
In testimony to the House International Relations Committee, Undersecretary of State Alan Larson said Iraq has tried to damage the world economy through its third oil embargo in less than two years. The result was a removal of close to three million barrels of oil per day from the market.
"We must anticipate that Iraq will continue to be a wild card in world oil markets," Larson said.
Larson said the large U.S. stock of strategic oil has deterred the prospect of supply disruptions. The official said this has foiled Iraqi efforts to damage the global market.
| Middle East Newsline editor@menewsline.com |
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Iraq has cancelled an oil exploration and
development project with Russia valued at up to $40 billion.
14 December 2002
The Moscow-based LukOil reported that it received formal notification from
the regime of President Saddam Hussein that an agreement for the development
of Iraq's southern-based oil and natural gas fields was being shelved. The
contract, formally cancelled on Dec. 9, called for Russian investment of
$3.7 billion for the development of the fields.
But industry sources said the cancellation of the 1997 award is believed
to stem from Russia's support of a United Nations Security Council resolution
that renewed inspections of suspected Iraqi weapons of mass destruction
facilities. The sources said Iraqi leaders have been increasingly dismayed
by Russia's failure to limit the UN inspections and warn the United States
against any war with Baghdad.
The Iraqi-Russian oil project had been regarded as a priority by Moscow as
a way to recoup Iraq's $10 billion debt to Russia. But Russian officials
and strategists had warned over the last few months that the Saddam regime
was preparing to cancel the deal.
| Middle East Newsline editor@menewsline.com |
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Syria Using Natural GAS To Strengthen Control Over Lebanon. 7 June 2002
Syria will profit in more ways than one from energy exports to Lebanon. Exports not only will provide Damascus with much-needed cash but also will fortify Syria's hold over Lebanon.
| http://www.stratfor.com/standard/analysis_view.php?ID=204765 |
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How Successful is
Al-Qaeda's Strategy of Depriving the West of Essential
Oil? - Mordechai Abir - Vol. 3, No. 26. 24 Jun 2004 |
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
<jcenter@jcpa.org>
Reply-To:
<brief4@jcpa.org>
The bombing of three pipelines leading to Iraq’s southern export terminals (the two Basra and Khor al-Amaya terminals) led to the temporary stoppage of all Iraqi oil exports. This was a major success in al-Qaeda’s strategy of undermining the Western economy by hitting the oil supply from the Persian Gulf. That, and the assassinations in Saudi Arabia of Western expatriates related to the oil industry, caused NYMEX oil prices to sharply spike to $42.23 a barrel. Since then, oil prices have declined to below $40 a barrel due to increasing oil supply (and more to come at the beginning of July) that has helped raise OECD inventories (especially U.S.) to above last year’s average. Moreover, developments in Saudi Arabia and Iraq should cause oil prices to decline further and to reach $30-35 a barrel. Al-Qaeda Targets Iraq
Iraq’s oil authorities have now announced that the country’s southern oil terminals’ exports are back to 1.0 million b/d as the pipelines leading to one of the Basra terminals and Khor al-Amaya have been repaired. The third pipeline carrying oil to the other Basra terminal will be repaired within a few weeks. Subsequently, Iraq should soon be able to export the 1.8-2.0 million b/d it had previously delivered to the world market. This does not include the shipment of about 250,000 b/d from Iraq’s northern fields by the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, which is being hurriedly repaired. Furthermore, according to Baghdad’s new/old petroleum minister, Thamir Ghadhban, Iraq’s output and exports should rise further in the third quarter of 2004.
It is believed that the well-planned bombings of the oil pipelines in Shi’ite southern Iraq were perpetrated by al-Qaeda terrorists. It has been claimed that Iraq’s al-Qaeda is led by Abu Mus’ad al-Zarqawi, the seasoned Jordanian veteran of the “Afghani” mujahidin. In addition to Saddam’s Ba’athist diehards, al-Zarqawi masterminded numerous attacks on U.S. forces and major infrastructure installations in Baghdad, the Sunni triangle north and west of the capital, and the Kurkuk-Mosul region. However, the Shi’ite territories are hostile to al-Qaeda’s Sunni Wahhabi militants. Therefore, repeating the successful operation against Iraq’s southern oil terminals should be far more difficult to carry out in the future.
The Threat to Saudi Stability
The killing of Abdul-Aziz al-Muqrin, the self-proclaimed head of al-Qaeda
in the Arabian Peninsula, is an important achievement for the Saudi
anti-terrorist forces and U.S. intelligence, which cooperates with them.
The three additional al-Qaeda members who were killed with al-Muqrin in the
firefight in Riyadh and the incarceration of 12 other (alleged) members of
his cell revealed interesting facts about Saudi al-Qaeda members and how
they function. It is clear that al-Muqrin’s network operated independently
of al-Qaeda’s central command. Although the Saudi al-Qaeda has lost
many of its former “Afghani” mujahidin since last May, it has managed
to attract scores of lower class, unemployed, and uneducated young Saudis
who have participated in attacks led by veteran al-Qaeda members.
It is alleged that al-Muqrin’s group even managed to win the support of some members of the security forces (attributable to tribal affiliation or religious fanaticism) and that it has sympathizers among the more fundamentalist, anti-regime elements of the Saudi population. However, the increasing persecution by the regime’s security forces after the May 2003 bombings of housing compounds in Riyadh reduced the ranks of al-Qaeda’s veteran fighters, who were either killed or incarcerated. The many Saudi and other Muslim casualties caused by the militants’ operation in Riyadh and other urban centers in the kingdom alienated the majority of the conservative (not to mention the better educated and liberal) Saudi population and helped the regime to largely isolate the al-Qaeda mujahidin and their younger offshoot. Indeed, six leading ultra-radical clerics, who have spent long periods in Saudi jails, together called upon the Saudi population to help the regime in its anti-terrorist endeavors.
The elimination of al-Muqrin’s group does not mean that the Saudi authorities managed to wipe out the militants’ threat to the kingdom. Other cells, made up of former Saudi “Afghanis” and younger volunteers, are likely to continue to operate, although with increasing difficulty, in Riyadh and regions of the kingdom where they still manage to enjoy shelter with ultra-fundamentalist and anti-Saudi elements (for instance, the al-Bureida region in the Najd and Assir on the Saudi border with Yemen). Under such circumstances, the remaining militants will find it more difficult to operate in the future, although their willingness to die for their cause may still enable al-Qaeda to mount limited “showy” operations. For example, it would be difficult to protect the tens of thousands of Western experts employed in the kingdom who are essential for the operation of the Saudi oil and related industries. Indeed, just a handful of murderous terrorists were necessary to carry out operations that led to the assassinations of Western and other expatriates in Yanbo, al-Khobar, and Riyadh.
The State Department has again strongly advised Americans to leave the Saudi kingdom (as did the British government) “due to recent information that the extremists may be planning to carry out attacks against Westerners and oil workers in the Persian Gulf region beyond Saudi Arabia.” Ironically, on June 18, Secretary of State Colin Powell called upon foreigners to stay in Saudi Arabia “because their departure would be a victory for the kind of people who beheaded kidnapped American Paul Johnson.” Indeed, Powell was particularly concerned that Western experts, who are essential for the operations of the Saudi oil industry (about 35,000 Americans and other Westerners are employed by Saudi Aramco and other bodies in the Saudi kingdom), would join the exodus of expatriates from Saudi Arabia.
The Future of Saudi Oil
It seems that the initial panic of Westerners employed in the Saudi kingdom
has somewhat subsided, although fear for personal safety has caused a good
number to leave the kingdom and others are about to follow them. Nevertheless,
the Saudi oil industry seems to continue to function normally, protected
in the Eastern (oil) Province by about 30,000 Saudi security personnel and
the Saudi and U.S. navies. Riyadh is keeping up with its undertaking to supply
the market with all the oil required. Aramco’s two new fields (al-Qatif
and Abu Safah) are about to come on line and initially produce about 500,000
b/d. This will help the Saudis to eventually produce (if necessary) up to
9.5 million b/d in the second half of 2004. With current production quickly
approaching 9.1 million b/d, Riyadh is most likely (with other OPEC producers)
to provide the market with all the oil required.
The strategy of al-Qaeda and related Sunni militant organizations to undermine the Western economy by hitting the Persian Gulf’s oil production is unlikely to succeed in the foreseeable future, as long as Iraq’s Shi’ite majority (and other Shi’ite communities in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia) cooperates with U.S. authorities and the new U.S./UN-appointed regime in Baghdad.
Mordechai Abir is a Fellow of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs and Professor (Emeritus) of Islamic and Middle Eastern Studies at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. His books include Saudi Arabia: Society, Government and the Gulf Crises (1993) and Saudi Arabia in the Oil Era: Regime and Elites: Conflict and Collaboration (1988).
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